League Two (England) · Sat, Oct 10 · 14:00 · Newport County vs Colchester United
Likeliest: Colchester United win · 39%
Likely score: 0–1
A tight one: we make it 39% for the away win. The market says 38%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Newport County33%35%−2
OursMarket
Draw29%27%+2
OursMarket
Colchester United39%38%+1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 73% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 52% | 52% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 26% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 60% | 56% | +3 |
| Double chance 1X | 61% | 62% | −1 |
| Double chance X2 | 67% | 65% | +2 |
| Double chance 12 | 71% | 73% | −2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 46% | 48% | −2 |
| Expected goals | 1.3 | 1.2 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Newport County
DrawWinWinDrawDraw
- Oct 6 · v Plymouth Argyle (H)2-2
- Oct 3 · at Gillingham (A)0-0
- Sep 26 · v Grimsby Town (H)2-1
- Sep 22 · at Swindon Town (A)2-0
- Sep 19 · at Accrington Stanley (A)0-0
Colchester United
DrawDrawLossDrawDraw
- Oct 3 · v Luton Town (H)1-1
- Sep 26 · at Shrewsbury Town (A)2-2
- Sep 22 · at Peterborough United (A)1-3
- Sep 19 · v Cheltenham Town (H)1-1
- Sep 12 · v Crewe Alexandra (H)1-1
| Last 10 games | Newport County | Colchester United |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 2-5-3 | 2-5-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.3 | 1.2 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.4 | 1.6 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 80% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-3-2 | 2-2-6 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.