Football League Trophy (England) · Tue, Oct 6 · 18:00 · Newport County vs Plymouth Argyle
Likeliest: Plymouth Argyle win · 62%
Likely score: 1–2
A tight one: we make it 62% for the away win. The market says 58%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Newport County16%20%−4
OursMarket
Draw23%23%0
OursMarket
Plymouth Argyle62%58%+4
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 91% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 59% | 63% | −3 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 56% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 52% | 58% | −6 |
| Double chance 1X | 39% | 42% | −4 |
| Double chance X2 | 84% | 80% | +4 |
| Double chance 12 | 77% | 77% | 0 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 20% | 25% | −5 |
| Expected goals | 1.6 | 2.6 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Newport County
DrawDrawWinWinDraw
- Oct 3 · at Gillingham (A)0-0
- Sep 26 · v Grimsby Town (H)2-1
- Sep 22 · at Swindon Town (A)2-0
- Sep 19 · at Accrington Stanley (A)0-0
- Sep 12 · v Fleetwood Town (H)1-1
Plymouth Argyle
WinWinWinLossWin
- Oct 3 · at Leyton Orient (A)2-0
- Sep 26 · v Burton Albion (H)0-1
- Sep 22 · v Crystal Palace U21 (H)5-1
- Sep 19 · at Blackpool (A)4-2
- Sep 12 · v Barnsley (H)3-0
| Last 10 games | Newport County | Plymouth Argyle |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-4-3 | 6-1-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.4 | 2.2 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.2 | 1.3 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-2-3 | 6-3-1 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.