League Two (England) · Sat, Oct 17 · 14:00 · Newport County vs York City
Likeliest: York City win · 52%
Likely score: 1–2
A tight one: we make it 52% for the away win. The market says 49%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Newport County22%26%−4
OursMarket
Draw26%25%+1
OursMarket
York City52%49%+2
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 78% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 56% | 56% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 32% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 58% | 58% | 0 |
| Double chance 1X | 48% | 51% | −2 |
| Double chance X2 | 78% | 74% | +4 |
| Double chance 12 | 74% | 75% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 30% | 34% | −4 |
| Expected goals | 1.2 | 1.8 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Newport County
WinWinDrawDrawDraw
- Oct 10 · v Colchester United (H)0-0
- Oct 6 · v Plymouth Argyle (H)2-2
- Oct 3 · at Gillingham (A)0-0
- Sep 26 · v Grimsby Town (H)2-1
- Sep 22 · at Swindon Town (A)2-0
York City
LossLossDrawWinDraw
- Oct 10 · v Northampton Town (H)1-1
- Sep 26 · v Gillingham (H)3-0
- Sep 22 · v Rotherham United (H)1-1
- Sep 19 · at Chesterfield (A)0-2
- Sep 15 · v Newcastle United U21 (H)1-3
| Last 10 games | Newport County | York City |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 2-6-2 | 3-4-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.0 | 1.6 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.9 | 1.3 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-4-1 | 3-3-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.