CONCACAF Nations League · Mon, Oct 5 · 02:00 · Nicaragua vs Dominican Republic
Likeliest: Dominican Republic win · 60%
Likely score: 1–2
A 60% away win. The market says 52%.
7 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Nicaragua17%21%−4
OursMarket
Draw24%27%−3
OursMarket
Dominican Republic60%52%+7
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 81% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 53% | 51% | +2 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 35% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 52% | 52% | 0 |
| Double chance 1X | 40% | 48% | −7 |
| Double chance X2 | 83% | 79% | +4 |
| Double chance 12 | 76% | 73% | +3 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 22% | 28% | −7 |
| Expected goals | 1.2 | 2.1 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Nicaragua
DrawLossLossLossLoss
- Oct 2 · v Costa Rica (H)0-3
- Sep 28 · at Curaçao (A)1-6
- Sep 25 · at Dominican Republic (A)2-3
- Jun 5 · at Paraguay (A)0-4
- May 29 · at South Africa (A)0-0
Dominican Republic
DrawLossWinWinLoss
- Oct 2 · v Haiti (H)1-4
- Sep 28 · at Trinidad and Tobago (A)2-1
- Sep 25 · v Nicaragua (H)3-2
- Jun 4 · at Panama (A)2-4
- Mar 29 · v Cuba (H)1-1
| Last 10 games | Nicaragua | Dominican Republic |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 0-3-5 | 4-2-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.8 | 1.5 |
| Goals conceded a game | 2.6 | 1.8 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 63% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 63% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 13% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | — | 1-1-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.