Ligue 1 (France) · Sun, Dec 7 · 14:00 · Nice vs Angers SCO
Likeliest: Nice win · 56%
A 56% home win. The market says 49%.
7 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Nice56%49%+7
OursMarket
Draw23%26%−3
OursMarket
Angers SCO21%25%−4
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 58% | 51% | +7 |
| Double chance 1X | 79% | 75% | +4 |
| Double chance X2 | 45% | 51% | −7 |
| Double chance 12 | 77% | 74% | +3 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 72% | 66% | +6 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Nice
LossLossLossLossLoss
- Nov 30 · at Lorient (A)1-3
- Nov 27 · at Porto (A)0-3
- Nov 21 · v Olympique Marseille (H)1-5
- Nov 9 · at Metz (A)1-2
- Nov 6 · v SC Freiburg (H)1-3
Angers SCO
DrawLossWinWinLoss
- Nov 30 · v Lens (H)1-2
- Nov 23 · at Toulouse (A)1-0
- Nov 9 · v Auxerre (H)2-0
- Nov 2 · at LOSC Lille (A)0-1
- Oct 29 · at Olympique Marseille (A)2-2
| Last 10 games | Nice | Angers SCO |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-0-7 | 3-2-5 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.2 | 0.9 |
| Goals conceded a game | 2.2 | 1.4 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 80% | 30% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 30% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-1-5 | 2-2-6 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.