Ligue 1 (France) · Sun, Feb 1 · 16:15 · Nice vs Brest
Likeliest: Nice win · 53%
A 53% home win. The market says 44%.
9 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Nice53%44%+9
OursMarket
Draw22%28%−6
OursMarket
Brest25%28%−3
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 52% | +8 |
| Both teams score | 62% | 57% | +4 |
| Double chance 1X | 75% | 72% | +3 |
| Double chance X2 | 48% | 56% | −9 |
| Double chance 12 | 78% | 72% | +6 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 67% | 61% | +6 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Nice
DrawLossWinWinLoss
- Jan 29 · at Ludogorets (A)0-1
- Jan 25 · at Nantes (A)4-1
- Jan 22 · v Go Ahead Eagles (H)3-1
- Jan 17 · at Toulouse (A)1-5
- Jan 11 · at Nantes (A)1-1
Brest
WinLossWinLossLoss
- Jan 25 · v Toulouse (H)0-2
- Jan 18 · at Olympique Lyonnais (A)1-2
- Jan 4 · v Auxerre (H)2-0
- Dec 13 · at Rennes (A)1-3
- Dec 5 · v Monaco (H)1-0
| Last 10 games | Nice | Brest |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-2-5 | 4-1-5 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.2 | 1.0 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.5 | 1.4 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-2-4 | 2-1-7 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.