Ligue 1 (France) · Sun, Apr 12 · 15:15 · Nice vs Le Havre
Likeliest: Nice win · 41%
A 35% away win. The market says 22%.
13 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Nice41%49%−8
OursMarket
Draw24%29%−5
OursMarket
Le Havre35%22%+13
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 54% | 48% | +6 |
| Both teams score | 58% | 52% | +6 |
| Double chance 1X | 65% | 78% | −13 |
| Double chance X2 | 59% | 51% | +8 |
| Double chance 12 | 76% | 71% | +5 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 54% | 69% | −15 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Nice
LossLossWinLossLoss
- Apr 4 · at Strasbourg (A)1-3
- Mar 21 · v Paris Saint Germain (H)0-4
- Mar 14 · at Angers SCO (A)2-0
- Mar 8 · v Rennes (H)0-4
- Mar 1 · at Paris (A)0-1
Le Havre
LossLossDrawLossDraw
- Apr 5 · v Auxerre (H)1-1
- Mar 22 · at Paris (A)2-3
- Mar 15 · v Olympique Lyonnais (H)0-0
- Mar 8 · at Brest (A)0-2
- Feb 28 · v Paris Saint Germain (H)0-1
| Last 10 games | Nice | Le Havre |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 2-3-5 | 2-3-5 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.1 | 0.7 |
| Goals conceded a game | 2.1 | 1.2 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 30% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-4-3 | 1-2-7 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.