Ligue 1 (France) · Sat, Sep 5 · 18:45 · Nice vs Le Mans
Likeliest: Le Mans win · 39%
A 39% away win. The market says 22%.
17 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Nice36%52%−16
OursMarket
Draw24%26%−1
OursMarket
Le Mans39%22%+17
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 52% | 50% | +1 |
| Both teams score | 54% | 53% | +1 |
| Double chance 1X | 61% | 78% | −17 |
| Double chance X2 | 64% | 48% | +16 |
| Double chance 12 | 76% | 74% | +1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 48% | 71% | −22 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Nice
LossDrawWinDrawLoss
- Aug 30 · at Paris FC (A)0-3
- Aug 22 · v Lorient (H)0-0
- May 29 · v Saint-Étienne (H)4-1
- May 26 · at Saint-Étienne (A)0-0
- May 22 · at Lens (A)1-3
Le Mans
WinDrawDrawDrawLoss
- Aug 30 · at Stade Rennais (A)2-3
- Aug 22 · v Stade Brestois (H)2-2
- May 2 · v Reims (H)1-1
- Apr 25 · at Grenoble Foot 38 (A)1-1
- Apr 17 · v Clermont (H)1-0
| Last 10 games | Nice | Le Mans |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 2-5-3 | 5-4-1 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.0 | 2.2 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.1 | 1.2 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 2-6-2 | 3-4-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.