Ligue 1 (France) · Sat, May 2 · 19:05 · Nice vs Lens
Likeliest: Lens win · 49%
A 29% home win. The market says 22%.
7 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Nice29%22%+7
OursMarket
Draw23%24%−1
OursMarket
Lens49%55%−6
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 64% | 60% | +4 |
| Both teams score | 56% | 60% | −4 |
| Double chance 1X | 51% | 45% | +6 |
| Double chance X2 | 72% | 78% | −7 |
| Double chance 12 | 77% | 76% | +1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 37% | 29% | +8 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Nice
LossDrawDrawWinDraw
- Apr 26 · at Olympique Marseille (A)1-1
- Apr 22 · at Strasbourg (A)2-0
- Apr 18 · at LOSC Lille (A)0-0
- Apr 12 · v Le Havre (H)1-1
- Apr 4 · at Strasbourg (A)1-3
Lens
WinLossWinWinDraw
- Apr 24 · at Brest (A)3-3
- Apr 21 · v Toulouse (H)4-1
- Apr 17 · v Toulouse (H)3-2
- Apr 4 · at LOSC Lille (A)0-3
- Mar 20 · v Angers SCO (H)5-1
| Last 10 games | Nice | Lens |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 2-4-4 | 5-2-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.0 | 2.7 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.7 | 1.6 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 90% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-5-2 | 5-2-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.