Ligue 1 (France) · Sun, Sep 20 · 15:15 · Nice vs Lille
Likeliest: Lille win · 48%
A tight one: we make it 48% for the away win. The market says 46%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Nice23%26%−3
OursMarket
Draw28%27%+1
OursMarket
Lille48%46%+2
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 78% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 49% | 50% | −1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 31% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 56% | 54% | +2 |
| Double chance 1X | 52% | 54% | −2 |
| Double chance X2 | 77% | 74% | +3 |
| Double chance 12 | 72% | 73% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 33% | 36% | −4 |
| Expected goals | 1.6 | 1.3 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Nice
WinDrawLossDrawLoss
- Sep 12 · at Auxerre (A)0-1
- Sep 5 · v Le Mans (H)1-1
- Aug 30 · at Paris FC (A)0-3
- Aug 22 · v Lorient (H)0-0
- May 29 · v Saint-Étienne (H)4-1
Lille
WinDrawWinLossWin
- Sep 13 · v Troyes (H)2-0
- Sep 8 · v Real Betis (H)2-3
- Sep 3 · at Toulouse (A)1-0
- Aug 28 · v PSG (H)2-2
- Aug 23 · at Angers (A)2-0
| Last 10 games | Nice | Lille |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 1-5-4 | 3-1-1 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.8 | 1.8 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.2 | 1.0 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 60% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 1-7-2 | — |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.