Ligue 1 (France) · Sun, Feb 22 · 16:15 · Nice vs Lorient
Likeliest: Nice win · 43%
We make it 61% for over 2.5 goals. The market says 52%.
9 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Nice43%45%−1
OursMarket
Draw24%27%−3
OursMarket
Lorient32%28%+4
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 61% | 52% | +9 |
| Both teams score | 63% | 56% | +7 |
| Double chance 1X | 68% | 72% | −4 |
| Double chance X2 | 57% | 55% | +1 |
| Double chance 12 | 76% | 73% | +3 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 57% | 61% | −4 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Nice
LossDrawWinDrawLoss
- Feb 15 · at Olympique Lyonnais (A)0-2
- Feb 8 · v Monaco (H)0-0
- Feb 4 · v Montpellier (H)3-2
- Feb 1 · v Brest (H)2-2
- Jan 29 · at Ludogorets (A)0-1
Lorient
WinWinWinLossWin
- Feb 15 · v Angers SCO (H)2-0
- Feb 7 · at Brest (A)0-2
- Feb 4 · v Paris (H)2-0
- Jan 31 · v Nantes (H)2-1
- Jan 24 · at Rennes (A)2-0
| Last 10 games | Nice | Lorient |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-4-3 | 7-2-1 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.5 | 2.2 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.6 | 0.6 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 50% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-3-4 | 4-2-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.