Ligue 1 (France) · Sat, Aug 22 · 18:45 · Nice vs Lorient
Likeliest: Nice win · 40%
A 37% away win. The market says 29%.
8 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Nice40%45%−5
OursMarket
Draw24%27%−3
OursMarket
Lorient37%29%+8
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 54% | 53% | +1 |
| Both teams score | 61% | 58% | +4 |
| Double chance 1X | 63% | 71% | −8 |
| Double chance X2 | 60% | 55% | +5 |
| Double chance 12 | 77% | 73% | +3 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 52% | 61% | −9 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Nice
LossDrawLossDrawWin
- May 29 · v Saint-Étienne (H)4-1
- May 26 · at Saint-Étienne (A)0-0
- May 22 · at Lens (A)1-3
- May 17 · v Metz (H)0-0
- May 10 · at Auxerre (A)1-2
Lorient
WinLossDrawWinLoss
- May 17 · v Le Havre (H)0-2
- May 10 · at Metz (A)4-0
- May 2 · at Paris Saint Germain (A)2-2
- Apr 26 · v Strasbourg (H)2-3
- Apr 18 · v Olympique Marseille (H)2-0
| Last 10 games | Nice | Lorient |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 2-6-2 | 3-3-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.1 | 1.4 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.9 | 1.3 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 30% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 2-6-2 | 4-3-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.