Ligue 1 (France) · Sun, May 17 · 19:00 · Nice vs Metz
Likeliest: Nice win · 60%
We make it 59% for both teams to score. The market says 51%.
8 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Nice60%70%−10
OursMarket
Draw23%18%+4
OursMarket
Metz18%12%+6
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 62% | 60% | +2 |
| Both teams score | 59% | 51% | +8 |
| Double chance 1X | 82% | 88% | −6 |
| Double chance X2 | 41% | 30% | +10 |
| Double chance 12 | 78% | 82% | −4 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 77% | 86% | −9 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Nice
DrawWinDrawDrawLoss
- May 10 · at Auxerre (A)1-2
- May 2 · v Lens (H)1-1
- Apr 26 · at Olympique Marseille (A)1-1
- Apr 22 · at Strasbourg (A)2-0
- Apr 18 · at LOSC Lille (A)0-0
Metz
LossLossDrawLossLoss
- May 10 · v Lorient (H)0-4
- May 2 · v Monaco (H)1-2
- Apr 26 · at Le Havre (A)4-4
- Apr 19 · v Paris (H)1-3
- Apr 10 · at Olympique Marseille (A)1-3
| Last 10 games | Nice | Metz |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 2-4-4 | 0-3-7 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.9 | 1.0 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.6 | 2.4 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 70% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 2-6-2 | 1-3-6 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.