Ligue 1 (France) · Fri, Nov 21 · 19:45 · Nice vs Olympique Marseille
Likeliest: Olympique Marseille win · 48%
We make it 63% for over 2.5 goals. The market says 57%.
6 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Nice29%26%+2
OursMarket
Draw24%26%−2
OursMarket
Olympique Marseille48%48%0
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 63% | 57% | +6 |
| Double chance 1X | 53% | 52% | 0 |
| Double chance X2 | 71% | 74% | −2 |
| Double chance 12 | 76% | 74% | +2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 38% | 36% | +2 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Nice
WinWinLossLossLoss
- Nov 9 · at Metz (A)1-2
- Nov 6 · v SC Freiburg (H)1-3
- Nov 1 · at Paris Saint Germain (A)0-1
- Oct 29 · v LOSC Lille (H)2-0
- Oct 26 · at Rennes (A)2-1
Olympique Marseille
LossDrawWinLossWin
- Nov 8 · v Brest (H)3-0
- Nov 5 · v Atalanta (H)0-1
- Nov 1 · at Auxerre (A)1-0
- Oct 29 · v Angers SCO (H)2-2
- Oct 25 · at Lens (A)1-2
| Last 10 games | Nice | Olympique Marseille |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-2-5 | 6-1-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.4 | 2.3 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.6 | 1.0 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 80% |
| Both teams scored | 80% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-1-4 | 4-1-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.