Ligue 1 (France) · Sat, Mar 21 · 20:00 · Nice vs Paris Saint Germain
Likeliest: Paris Saint Germain win · 57%
A 22% home win. The market says 15%.
7 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Nice22%15%+7
OursMarket
Draw21%19%+2
OursMarket
Paris Saint Germain57%66%−8
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 63% | 66% | −2 |
| Both teams score | 65% | 59% | +5 |
| Double chance 1X | 43% | 34% | +8 |
| Double chance X2 | 78% | 85% | −7 |
| Double chance 12 | 79% | 81% | −2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 28% | 19% | +9 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Nice
LossDrawLossLossWin
- Mar 14 · at Angers SCO (A)2-0
- Mar 8 · v Rennes (H)0-4
- Mar 1 · at Paris (A)0-1
- Feb 22 · v Lorient (H)3-3
- Feb 15 · at Olympique Lyonnais (A)0-2
Paris Saint Germain
DrawWinLossWinWin
- Mar 17 · at Chelsea (A)3-0
- Mar 11 · v Chelsea (H)5-2
- Mar 6 · v Monaco (H)1-3
- Feb 28 · at Le Havre (A)1-0
- Feb 25 · v Monaco (H)2-2
| Last 10 games | Nice | Paris Saint Germain |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-3-4 | 7-1-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.4 | 2.6 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.6 | 1.3 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 90% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-4-3 | 7-1-2 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.