Ligue 1 (France) · Sun, Mar 8 · 16:15 · Nice vs Rennes
Likeliest: Nice win · 40%
We make it 64% for over 2.5 goals. The market says 58%.
6 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Nice40%34%+5
OursMarket
Draw24%27%−3
OursMarket
Rennes36%39%−2
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 64% | 58% | +6 |
| Both teams score | 66% | 62% | +4 |
| Double chance 1X | 64% | 61% | +2 |
| Double chance X2 | 60% | 66% | −5 |
| Double chance 12 | 76% | 73% | +3 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 52% | 47% | +5 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Nice
WinDrawLossDrawLoss
- Mar 1 · at Paris (A)0-1
- Feb 22 · v Lorient (H)3-3
- Feb 15 · at Olympique Lyonnais (A)0-2
- Feb 8 · v Monaco (H)0-0
- Feb 4 · v Montpellier (H)3-2
Rennes
LossLossWinWinWin
- Feb 28 · v Toulouse (H)1-0
- Feb 22 · at Auxerre (A)3-0
- Feb 13 · v Paris Saint Germain (H)3-1
- Feb 7 · at Lens (A)1-3
- Feb 3 · at Olympique Marseille (A)0-3
| Last 10 games | Nice | Rennes |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-3-4 | 5-1-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.6 | 1.4 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.8 | 1.5 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-4-3 | 5-1-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.