Ligue 1 Play-offs (France) · Fri, May 29 · 18:45 · Nice vs Saint-Étienne
Likeliest: Saint-Étienne win · 39%
A 39% away win. The market says 24%.
15 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Nice34%47%−13
OursMarket
Draw27%29%−2
OursMarket
Saint-Étienne39%24%+15
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 56% | 43% | +14 |
| Both teams score | 59% | 48% | +10 |
| Double chance 1X | 61% | 76% | −15 |
| Double chance X2 | 66% | 53% | +13 |
| Double chance 12 | 73% | 71% | +2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 47% | 67% | −20 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Nice
DrawLossDrawLossDraw
- May 26 · at Saint-Étienne (A)0-0
- May 22 · at Lens (A)1-3
- May 17 · v Metz (H)0-0
- May 10 · at Auxerre (A)1-2
- May 2 · v Lens (H)1-1
Saint-Étienne
LossLossWinDrawDraw
- May 26 · v Nice (H)0-0
- May 15 · v Rodez (H)0-0
- May 9 · v Amiens SC (H)5-0
- May 2 · at Rodez (A)1-2
- Apr 25 · v Troyes (H)0-3
| Last 10 games | Nice | Saint-Étienne |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 1-6-3 | 3-4-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.8 | 1.3 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.1 | 0.9 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 30% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 30% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 50% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 2-6-2 | 2-3-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.