Ligue 1 (France) · Sat, Jan 3 · 18:00 · Nice vs Strasbourg
Likeliest: Nice win · 41%
A 41% home win. The market says 33%.
8 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Nice41%33%+8
OursMarket
Draw25%27%−1
OursMarket
Strasbourg34%40%−6
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 59% | 54% | +4 |
| Both teams score | 59% | 59% | 0 |
| Double chance 1X | 66% | 60% | +6 |
| Double chance X2 | 59% | 67% | −8 |
| Double chance 12 | 75% | 73% | +1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 54% | 45% | +10 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Nice
LossLossLossLossWin
- Dec 21 · v Saint-Étienne (H)2-1
- Dec 14 · at Lens (A)0-2
- Dec 11 · v Sporting Braga (H)0-1
- Dec 7 · v Angers SCO (H)0-1
- Nov 30 · at Lorient (A)1-3
Strasbourg
LossWinDrawWinWin
- Dec 21 · v Dunkerque (H)2-1
- Dec 18 · v Breidablik (H)3-1
- Dec 14 · v Lorient (H)0-0
- Dec 11 · at Aberdeen (A)1-0
- Dec 6 · at Toulouse (A)0-1
| Last 10 games | Nice | Strasbourg |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 1-0-9 | 6-1-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.6 | 1.3 |
| Goals conceded a game | 2.2 | 0.8 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-1-5 | 4-1-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.