Africa Cup of Nations Qualifiers · Fri, Sep 25 · 15:00 · Niger vs Lesotho
Likeliest: Niger win · 60%
We make it 57% for both teams to score. The market says 38%.
20 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Niger60%59%+1
OursMarket
Draw26%26%0
OursMarket
Lesotho14%15%−1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 78% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 36% | 38% | −3 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 32% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 57% | 38% | +20 |
| Double chance 1X | 86% | 85% | +1 |
| Double chance X2 | 40% | 41% | −1 |
| Double chance 12 | 75% | 74% | 0 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 81% | 80% | +1 |
| Expected goals | 1.8 | 0.8 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Niger
DrawDrawLossDrawLoss
- Jun 8 · at Mauritania (A)0-1
- Jun 5 · at Benin (A)1-1
- Mar 31 · v Togo (H)0-1
- Mar 27 · at Libya (A)0-0
- Nov 18 · v Guinea (H)1-1
Lesotho
DrawDrawLossDrawLoss
- Jun 7 · at Kenya (A)0-4
- Jun 4 · v Kenya (H)1-1
- Nov 18 · v Malawi (H)0-1
- Nov 15 · v Malawi (H)0-0
- Jun 1 · v Namibia (H)1-1
| Last 10 games | Niger | Lesotho |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 1-6-3 | 0-3-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.9 | 0.4 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.1 | 1.4 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 20% | 20% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 2-2-1 | — |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.