Africa Cup of Nations Qualifiers · Fri, Sep 25 · 16:00 · Nigeria vs Madagascar
Likeliest: Nigeria win · 79%
A 79% home win. The market says 75%.
4 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Nigeria79%75%+4
OursMarket
Draw13%17%−3
OursMarket
Madagascar8%9%−1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 83% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 56% | 56% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 39% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 35% | 38% | −3 |
| Double chance 1X | 93% | 91% | +1 |
| Double chance X2 | 21% | 25% | −4 |
| Double chance 12 | 87% | 83% | +3 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 91% | 90% | +2 |
| Expected goals | 3.0 | 1.6 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Nigeria
DrawWinWinDrawLoss
- Jun 10 · at Portugal (A)1-2
- Jun 3 · at Poland (A)2-2
- May 30 · at Jamaica (A)3-0
- May 26 · v Zimbabwe (H)2-0
- Mar 31 · at Jordan (A)2-2
Madagascar
LossWinWinDrawLoss
- Jun 2 · at Morocco (A)0-4
- Mar 31 · at Equatorial Guinea (A)1-1
- Mar 28 · at Kyrgyz Republic (A)5-2
- Nov 17 · v Equatorial Guinea (H)2-0
- Jun 8 · at Congo DR (A)1-3
| Last 10 games | Nigeria | Madagascar |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-4-2 | 2-1-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.8 | 1.8 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.3 | 2.0 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 80% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 80% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | — | — |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.