NWSL (USA) · Sun, Oct 4 · 17:00 · NJ/NY Gotham FC vs Angel City FC
Likeliest: NJ/NY Gotham FC win · 51%
We make it 58% for both teams to score. The market says 51%.
6 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
NJ/NY Gotham FC51%52%0
OursMarket
Draw26%25%+1
OursMarket
Angel City FC23%24%−1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 78% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 53% | 53% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 31% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 58% | 51% | +6 |
| Double chance 1X | 77% | 76% | +1 |
| Double chance X2 | 49% | 48% | 0 |
| Double chance 12 | 74% | 75% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 69% | 69% | +1 |
| Expected goals | 1.1 | 1.2 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
NJ/NY Gotham FC
DrawLossWinWinDraw
- Sep 26 · v Chicago Stars FC (H)0-0
- Sep 19 · at North Carolina Courage (A)2-1
- Sep 11 · at Racing Louisville (A)2-1
- Sep 6 · at Denver Summit FC (A)0-3
- Aug 29 · v Portland Thorns FC (H)1-1
Angel City FC
WinDrawWinWinWin
- Sep 26 · at Washington Spirit (A)1-0
- Sep 20 · at Utah Royals FC (A)3-0
- Sep 17 · v Seattle Reign FC (H)3-1
- Sep 12 · v Denver Summit FC (H)3-3
- Sep 5 · at Racing Louisville (A)2-0
| Last 10 games | NJ/NY Gotham FC | Angel City FC |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 6-3-1 | 5-4-1 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.0 | 2.0 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.7 | 1.1 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-2-0 | 6-2-1 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.