NWSL (USA) · Sat, Sep 26 · 00:00 · NJ/NY Gotham FC vs Chicago Stars FC
Likeliest: NJ/NY Gotham FC win · 86%
A tight one: we make it 86% for the home win. The market says 82%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
NJ/NY Gotham FC86%82%+4
OursMarket
Draw8%11%−3
OursMarket
Chicago Stars FC6%7%−1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 80% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 72% | 69% | +3 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 34% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 46% | 46% | 0 |
| Double chance 1X | 94% | 93% | +1 |
| Double chance X2 | 14% | 18% | −4 |
| Double chance 12 | 92% | 89% | +3 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 93% | 93% | +1 |
| Expected goals | 2.1 | 0.6 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
NJ/NY Gotham FC
DrawDrawLossWinWin
- Sep 19 · at North Carolina Courage (A)2-1
- Sep 11 · at Racing Louisville (A)2-1
- Sep 6 · at Denver Summit FC (A)0-3
- Aug 29 · v Portland Thorns FC (H)1-1
- Aug 24 · at Angel City FC (A)0-0
Chicago Stars FC
WinLossLossDrawLoss
- Sep 20 · v Washington Spirit (H)0-3
- Sep 13 · at Portland Thorns FC (A)1-1
- Sep 6 · v North Carolina Courage (H)0-6
- Aug 30 · at Denver Summit FC (A)1-6
- Aug 23 · v Racing Louisville (H)3-2
| Last 10 games | NJ/NY Gotham FC | Chicago Stars FC |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 6-3-1 | 1-2-7 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.2 | 0.6 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.9 | 2.7 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-1-0 | 1-1-6 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.