PrvaLiga (Slovenia) · Wed, Sep 2 · 18:00 · NK Aluminij Kidričevo vs NK Celje
Likeliest: NK Celje win · 46%
We make it 46% for under 2.5 goals. The market says 38%.
9 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
NK Aluminij Kidričevo29%20%+8
OursMarket
Draw25%23%+2
OursMarket
NK Celje46%57%−11
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 54% | 63% | −9 |
| Both teams score | 60% | 59% | +1 |
| Double chance 1X | 54% | 43% | +11 |
| Double chance X2 | 71% | 80% | −8 |
| Double chance 12 | 75% | 77% | −2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 38% | 26% | +12 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
NK Aluminij Kidričevo
LossDrawWinWinLoss
- Aug 28 · v FC Koper (H)0-1
- Aug 21 · v Brinje Grosuplje (H)4-2
- Aug 16 · at Kalcer Radomlje (A)3-1
- Aug 9 · v NK Nafta Lendava 1903 (H)1-1
- Aug 2 · at NK Olimpija Ljubljana (A)0-1
NK Celje
WinWinDrawDrawLoss
- Aug 30 · at Brinje Grosuplje (A)1-4
- Aug 26 · v ŠK Slovan Bratislava (H)1-1
- Aug 19 · at ŠK Slovan Bratislava (A)1-1
- Aug 15 · at NK Nafta Lendava 1903 (A)3-1
- Aug 11 · v FC Ararat-Armenia (H)2-0
| Last 10 games | NK Aluminij Kidričevo | NK Celje |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 2-4-4 | 3-5-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.9 | 1.5 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.1 | 1.4 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 30% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 80% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 1-3-2 | 1-2-2 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.