PrvaLiga (Slovenia) · Fri, Oct 16 · 15:30 · NK Aluminij Kidričevo vs NK Olimpija Ljubljana
Likeliest: NK Olimpija Ljubljana win · 53%
Likely score: 0–1
A tight one: we make it 53% for the away win. The market says 50%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
NK Aluminij Kidričevo19%23%−4
OursMarket
Draw28%26%+1
OursMarket
NK Olimpija Ljubljana53%50%+3
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 74% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 50% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 27% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 54% | 51% | +2 |
| Double chance 1X | 47% | 50% | −3 |
| Double chance X2 | 81% | 77% | +4 |
| Double chance 12 | 73% | 74% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 27% | 32% | −5 |
| Expected goals | 1.1 | 1.2 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
NK Aluminij Kidričevo
LossDrawWinDrawLoss
- Oct 10 · at NK Celje (A)0-1
- Sep 19 · at NK Maribor (A)2-2
- Sep 13 · at NŠ Mura (A)6-1
- Sep 5 · v NK Bravo (H)0-0
- Sep 2 · v NK Celje (H)0-2
NK Olimpija Ljubljana
DrawWinWinLossDraw
- Oct 10 · v NŠ Mura (H)3-3
- Sep 20 · at NK Bravo (A)1-2
- Sep 12 · at FC Koper (A)3-1
- Sep 5 · v Brinje Grosuplje (H)3-0
- Aug 29 · at Kalcer Radomlje (A)0-0
| Last 10 games | NK Aluminij Kidričevo | NK Olimpija Ljubljana |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-3-4 | 4-3-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.6 | 1.3 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.2 | 0.9 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 1-4-3 | 1-1-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.