PrvaLiga (Slovenia) · Sat, Oct 17 · 13:00 · NK Bravo vs Kalcer Radomlje
Likeliest: NK Bravo win · 49%
Likely score: 2–1
A tight one: we make it 49% for the home win. The market says 50%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
NK Bravo49%50%0
OursMarket
Draw27%26%+1
OursMarket
Kalcer Radomlje24%25%−1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 77% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 56% | 56% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 30% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 57% | 58% | −1 |
| Double chance 1X | 76% | 75% | +1 |
| Double chance X2 | 51% | 50% | 0 |
| Double chance 12 | 73% | 74% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 67% | 67% | +1 |
| Expected goals | 1.7 | 1.1 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
NK Bravo
WinDrawWinWinLoss
- Oct 11 · at NK Nafta Lendava 1903 (A)0-1
- Sep 20 · v NK Olimpija Ljubljana (H)2-1
- Sep 12 · v NK Celje (H)2-1
- Sep 5 · at NK Aluminij Kidričevo (A)0-0
- Aug 29 · v NŠ Mura (H)2-0
Kalcer Radomlje
DrawLossLossLossDraw
- Oct 10 · v FC Koper (H)3-3
- Sep 20 · at Brinje Grosuplje (A)1-2
- Sep 13 · v NK Maribor (H)0-3
- Sep 4 · at NK Nafta Lendava 1903 (A)1-3
- Aug 29 · v NK Olimpija Ljubljana (H)0-0
| Last 10 games | NK Bravo | Kalcer Radomlje |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-3-3 | 1-3-6 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.1 | 1.2 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.1 | 2.1 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 80% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-1-1 | — |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.