PrvaLiga (Slovenia) · Sat, Sep 12 · 18:15 · NK Bravo vs NK Celje
Likeliest: NK Celje win · 58%
We make it 65% for both teams to score. The market says 61%.
4 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
NK Bravo19%21%−3
OursMarket
Draw23%23%0
OursMarket
NK Celje58%56%+2
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 73% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 65% | 64% | +2 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 26% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 65% | 61% | +4 |
| Double chance 1X | 42% | 44% | −3 |
| Double chance X2 | 81% | 79% | +3 |
| Double chance 12 | 77% | 77% | 0 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 24% | 28% | −3 |
| Expected goals | 1.0 | 1.4 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
NK Bravo
DrawDrawLossWinDraw
- Sep 5 · at NK Aluminij Kidričevo (A)0-0
- Aug 29 · v NŠ Mura (H)2-0
- Aug 23 · at NK Maribor (A)1-3
- Aug 16 · at FC Koper (A)0-0
- Aug 9 · v Brinje Grosuplje (H)1-1
NK Celje
DrawDrawLossWinLoss
- Sep 6 · v FC Koper (H)0-1
- Sep 2 · at NK Aluminij Kidričevo (A)2-0
- Aug 30 · at Brinje Grosuplje (A)1-4
- Aug 26 · v ŠK Slovan Bratislava (H)1-1
- Aug 19 · at ŠK Slovan Bratislava (A)1-1
| Last 10 games | NK Bravo | NK Celje |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-3-3 | 4-3-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.1 | 1.3 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.2 | 1.1 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 30% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | — | 2-2-2 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.