PrvaLiga (Slovenia) · Sun, Sep 6 · 18:15 · NK Celje vs FC Koper
Likeliest: NK Celje win · 52%
We make it 47% for under 2.5 goals. The market says 40%.
7 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
NK Celje52%46%+6
OursMarket
Draw23%25%−2
OursMarket
FC Koper26%29%−4
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 53% | 60% | −7 |
| Both teams score | 58% | 61% | −3 |
| Double chance 1X | 75% | 71% | +4 |
| Double chance X2 | 49% | 54% | −5 |
| Double chance 12 | 77% | 75% | +2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 67% | 61% | +6 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
NK Celje
WinDrawDrawLossWin
- Sep 2 · at NK Aluminij Kidričevo (A)2-0
- Aug 30 · at Brinje Grosuplje (A)1-4
- Aug 26 · v ŠK Slovan Bratislava (H)1-1
- Aug 19 · at ŠK Slovan Bratislava (A)1-1
- Aug 15 · at NK Nafta Lendava 1903 (A)3-1
FC Koper
DrawLossDrawWinWin
- Aug 28 · at NK Aluminij Kidričevo (A)1-0
- Aug 22 · at NŠ Mura (A)1-0
- Aug 16 · v NK Bravo (H)0-0
- Aug 9 · at NK Maribor (A)0-2
- Aug 2 · at Brinje Grosuplje (A)1-1
| Last 10 games | NK Celje | FC Koper |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-4-2 | 4-3-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.4 | 1.0 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.1 | 0.8 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 30% | 11% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 22% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 56% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 2-4-0 | 4-1-1 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.