PrvaLiga (Slovenia) · Sat, Oct 10 · 15:30 · NK Celje vs NK Aluminij Kidričevo
Likeliest: NK Celje win · 63%
Likely score: 1–0
A tight one: we make it 63% for the home win. The market says 62%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
NK Celje63%62%+1
OursMarket
Draw21%21%0
OursMarket
NK Aluminij Kidričevo16%17%−1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 74% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 61% | 60% | +1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 27% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 58% | 56% | +3 |
| Double chance 1X | 85% | 83% | +2 |
| Double chance X2 | 37% | 38% | −1 |
| Double chance 12 | 79% | 79% | 0 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 80% | 78% | +2 |
| Expected goals | 1.3 | 1.1 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
NK Celje
WinLossLossLossDraw
- Sep 20 · at NŠ Mura (A)0-0
- Sep 16 · at Bayer 04 Leverkusen (A)0-2
- Sep 12 · at NK Bravo (A)1-2
- Sep 6 · v FC Koper (H)0-1
- Sep 2 · at NK Aluminij Kidričevo (A)2-0
NK Aluminij Kidričevo
LossLossDrawWinDraw
- Sep 19 · at NK Maribor (A)2-2
- Sep 13 · at NŠ Mura (A)6-1
- Sep 5 · v NK Bravo (H)0-0
- Sep 2 · v NK Celje (H)0-2
- Aug 28 · v FC Koper (H)0-1
| Last 10 games | NK Celje | NK Aluminij Kidričevo |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-3-4 | 3-3-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.1 | 1.6 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.2 | 1.4 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 30% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 2-4-1 | 2-2-2 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.