PrvaLiga (Slovenia) · Sat, Aug 1 · 18:15 · NK Celje vs NK Maribor
Likeliest: NK Celje win · 61%
A 61% home win. The market says 42%.
19 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
NK Celje61%42%+19
OursMarket
Draw21%25%−5
OursMarket
NK Maribor19%33%−14
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 54% | 65% | −11 |
| Both teams score | 57% | 63% | −6 |
| Double chance 1X | 81% | 67% | +14 |
| Double chance X2 | 39% | 58% | −19 |
| Double chance 12 | 79% | 75% | +5 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 77% | 56% | +20 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
NK Celje
DrawDrawDraw
- Jul 28 · v KF Egnatia (H)1-1
- Jul 22 · at KF Egnatia (A)3-3
- Jul 17 · v NŠ Mura (H)2-2
NK Maribor
DrawWin
- Jul 25 · v Brinje Grosuplje (H)3-0
- Jul 19 · at NK Aluminij Kidričevo (A)0-0