Europa League (Europe) · Thu, Oct 15 · 16:45 · NK Celje vs Omonia Nicosia
Likeliest: NK Celje win · 37%
Likely score: 1–0
A tight one: we make it 37% for the home win. The market says 39%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
NK Celje37%39%−2
OursMarket
Draw29%27%+2
OursMarket
Omonia Nicosia34%34%0
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 72% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 54% | 53% | +1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 25% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 60% | 57% | +3 |
| Double chance 1X | 66% | 66% | 0 |
| Double chance X2 | 63% | 61% | +2 |
| Double chance 12 | 71% | 73% | −2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 52% | 53% | −1 |
| Expected goals | 1.1 | 1.1 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
NK Celje
LossLossLossDrawWin
- Oct 10 · v NK Aluminij Kidričevo (H)1-0
- Sep 20 · at NŠ Mura (A)0-0
- Sep 16 · at Bayer 04 Leverkusen (A)0-2
- Sep 12 · at NK Bravo (A)1-2
- Sep 6 · v FC Koper (H)0-1
Omonia Nicosia
WinDrawWinWinWin
- Oct 9 · at Karmiotissa Polemidion (A)3-0
- Sep 20 · v Enosis Neon Ypsona FC (H)4-1
- Sep 16 · v Celta Vigo (H)1-0
- Sep 12 · v Apollon Limassol (H)0-0
- Sep 7 · at Aris Limassol (A)4-1
| Last 10 games | NK Celje | Omonia Nicosia |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-3-4 | 6-3-1 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.0 | 1.8 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.2 | 0.6 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 30% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 50% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-4-1 | 3-4-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.