Europa League (Europe) · Thu, Oct 22 · 19:00 · NK Celje vs Red Bull Salzburg
Likeliest: Red Bull Salzburg win · 56%
Likely score: 1–2
A tight one: we make it 56% for the away win. The market says 52%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
NK Celje19%23%−4
OursMarket
Draw25%24%+1
OursMarket
Red Bull Salzburg56%52%+3
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 76% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 59% | 58% | +1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 29% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 55% | 56% | 0 |
| Double chance 1X | 44% | 48% | −3 |
| Double chance X2 | 81% | 77% | +4 |
| Double chance 12 | 75% | 76% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 25% | 31% | −6 |
| Expected goals | 1.2 | 1.6 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
NK Celje
LossDrawWinLossDraw
- Oct 18 · at NK Maribor (A)0-0
- Oct 15 · v Omonia Nicosia (H)0-3
- Oct 10 · v NK Aluminij Kidričevo (H)1-0
- Sep 20 · at NŠ Mura (A)0-0
- Sep 16 · at Bayer 04 Leverkusen (A)0-2
Red Bull Salzburg
WinWinDrawLossWin
- Oct 18 · v SC Rheindorf Altach (H)3-0
- Oct 15 · v AC Milan (H)0-4
- Oct 10 · at Grazer AK 1902 (A)0-0
- Sep 20 · v SK Sturm Graz (H)3-0
- Sep 17 · at Levski Sofia (A)1-0
| Last 10 games | NK Celje | Red Bull Salzburg |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 2-3-5 | 7-2-1 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.6 | 2.1 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.3 | 0.7 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 30% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 30% | 30% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 60% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-4-2 | 3-4-0 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.