1. HNL (Croatia) · Sat, Sep 19 · 18:00 · NK Istra 1961 vs HNK Gorica
Likeliest: NK Istra 1961 win · 50%
We make it 60% for both teams to score. The market says 55%.
4 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
NK Istra 196150%50%0
OursMarket
Draw26%26%0
OursMarket
HNK Gorica24%24%0
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 71% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 56% | 54% | +2 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 23% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 60% | 55% | +4 |
| Double chance 1X | 76% | 76% | 0 |
| Double chance X2 | 50% | 50% | 0 |
| Double chance 12 | 74% | 74% | 0 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 68% | 67% | 0 |
| Expected goals | 1.3 | 0.9 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
NK Istra 1961
WinLossDrawDrawWin
- Sep 13 · v NK Rudeš (H)3-2
- Sep 4 · at NK Varaždin (A)0-0
- Aug 29 · v GNK Dinamo Zagreb (H)2-2
- Aug 23 · at HNK Rijeka (A)2-3
- Aug 15 · v NK Slaven Belupo (H)3-0
HNK Gorica
LossLossDrawLossDraw
- Sep 14 · v NK Varaždin (H)2-2
- Sep 5 · at GNK Dinamo Zagreb (A)0-1
- Aug 31 · v HNK Rijeka (H)0-0
- Aug 22 · at NK Slaven Belupo (A)0-2
- Aug 16 · v HNK Hajduk Split (H)1-2
| Last 10 games | NK Istra 1961 | HNK Gorica |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 2-3-2 | 0-2-5 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.0 | 0.6 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.7 | 1.7 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 86% | 43% |
| Both teams scored | 71% | 43% |
| Clean sheets | 29% | 14% |
| Last 10 at this venue | — | — |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.