1. HNL (Croatia) · Sat, Aug 1 · 16:30 · NK Istra 1961 vs NK Lokomotiva Zagreb
Likeliest: NK Istra 1961 win · 41%
A tight one: we make it 41% for the home win. The market says 44%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
NK Istra 196141%44%−4
OursMarket
Draw28%27%+1
OursMarket
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb31%29%+2
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 51% | 51% | 0 |
| Both teams score | 56% | 54% | +2 |
| Double chance 1X | 69% | 71% | −2 |
| Double chance X2 | 60% | 56% | +4 |
| Double chance 12 | 72% | 73% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 56% | 60% | −4 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.