1. HNL (Croatia) · Sat, Aug 8 · 19:00 · NK Lokomotiva Zagreb vs HNK Gorica
Likeliest: NK Lokomotiva Zagreb win · 48%
A 48% home win. The market says 44%.
4 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb48%44%+4
OursMarket
Draw26%28%−2
OursMarket
HNK Gorica26%29%−2
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 49% | 48% | +1 |
| Both teams score | 51% | 54% | −3 |
| Double chance 1X | 74% | 71% | +2 |
| Double chance X2 | 52% | 56% | −4 |
| Double chance 12 | 74% | 72% | +2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 65% | 60% | +4 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb
Win
- Aug 1 · at NK Istra 1961 (A)3-2
HNK Gorica
Loss
- Aug 1 · v NK Osijek (H)0-2