1. HNL (Croatia) · Sat, Sep 12 · 18:00 · NK Lokomotiva Zagreb vs HNK Rijeka
Likeliest: HNK Rijeka win · 59%
A tight one: we make it 59% for the away win. The market says 56%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb16%19%−3
OursMarket
Draw25%25%0
OursMarket
HNK Rijeka59%56%+3
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 70% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 50% | −1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 22% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 52% | 50% | +2 |
| Double chance 1X | 41% | 44% | −3 |
| Double chance X2 | 84% | 81% | +3 |
| Double chance 12 | 75% | 75% | 0 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 22% | 26% | −4 |
| Expected goals | 1.0 | 1.2 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb
WinLossLossLossLoss
- Sep 6 · at NK Slaven Belupo (A)1-2
- Aug 31 · at HNK Hajduk Split (A)0-2
- Aug 21 · at NK Rudeš (A)1-4
- Aug 15 · at NK Osijek (A)0-1
- Aug 8 · v HNK Gorica (H)3-1
HNK Rijeka
LossWinLossDrawWin
- Sep 5 · v NK Osijek (H)4-1
- Aug 31 · at HNK Gorica (A)0-0
- Aug 27 · v FC Midtjylland (H)1-4
- Aug 23 · v NK Istra 1961 (H)3-2
- Aug 20 · at FC Midtjylland (A)0-2
| Last 10 games | NK Lokomotiva Zagreb | HNK Rijeka |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 2-0-4 | 5-2-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.3 | 1.3 |
| Goals conceded a game | 2.0 | 1.3 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 67% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 67% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | — | 1-2-2 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.