1. HNL (Croatia) · Sat, Oct 17 · 13:00 · NK Lokomotiva Zagreb vs NK Istra 1961
Likeliest: NK Lokomotiva Zagreb win · 37%
Likely score: 1–0
A tight one: we make it 37% for the home win. The market says 40%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb37%40%−4
OursMarket
Draw29%26%+3
OursMarket
NK Istra 196135%34%+1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 74% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 59% | 58% | +1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 26% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 53% | 59% | −6 |
| Double chance 1X | 65% | 66% | −1 |
| Double chance X2 | 63% | 60% | +4 |
| Double chance 12 | 71% | 74% | −3 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 51% | 54% | −3 |
| Expected goals | 1.3 | 1.2 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb
LossLossDrawLossLoss
- Oct 11 · v NK Varaždin (H)0-1
- Sep 20 · at GNK Dinamo Zagreb (A)2-3
- Sep 12 · v HNK Rijeka (H)1-1
- Sep 6 · at NK Slaven Belupo (A)1-2
- Aug 31 · at HNK Hajduk Split (A)0-2
NK Istra 1961
DrawDrawWinLossWin
- Oct 10 · at NK Osijek (A)3-1
- Sep 19 · v HNK Gorica (H)0-1
- Sep 13 · v NK Rudeš (H)3-2
- Sep 4 · at NK Varaždin (A)0-0
- Aug 29 · v GNK Dinamo Zagreb (H)2-2
| Last 10 games | NK Lokomotiva Zagreb | NK Istra 1961 |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 2-1-6 | 3-3-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.2 | 1.9 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.9 | 1.6 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 56% | 78% |
| Both teams scored | 67% | 67% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 22% |
| Last 10 at this venue | — | — |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.