1. HNL (Croatia) · Sun, Oct 11 · 13:00 · NK Lokomotiva Zagreb vs NK Varaždin
Likeliest: NK Varaždin win · 42%
Likely score: 0–1
A tight one: we make it 42% for the away win. The market says 41%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb29%32%−3
OursMarket
Draw29%27%+2
OursMarket
NK Varaždin42%41%+1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 73% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 51% | 51% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 25% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 53% | 55% | −3 |
| Double chance 1X | 58% | 59% | −1 |
| Double chance X2 | 71% | 68% | +3 |
| Double chance 12 | 71% | 73% | −2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 41% | 44% | −3 |
| Expected goals | 1.1 | 1.3 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb
LossLossLossDrawLoss
- Sep 20 · at GNK Dinamo Zagreb (A)2-3
- Sep 12 · v HNK Rijeka (H)1-1
- Sep 6 · at NK Slaven Belupo (A)1-2
- Aug 31 · at HNK Hajduk Split (A)0-2
- Aug 21 · at NK Rudeš (A)1-4
NK Varaždin
LossWinDrawDrawDraw
- Sep 19 · v NK Osijek (H)0-0
- Sep 14 · at HNK Gorica (A)2-2
- Sep 4 · v NK Istra 1961 (H)0-0
- Aug 29 · v NK Rudeš (H)2-0
- Aug 22 · at GNK Dinamo Zagreb (A)1-3
| Last 10 games | NK Lokomotiva Zagreb | NK Varaždin |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 2-1-5 | 5-3-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.4 | 1.6 |
| Goals conceded a game | 2.0 | 1.1 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 63% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 75% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | — | — |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.