PrvaLiga (Slovenia) · Sun, Aug 9 · 18:15 · NK Maribor vs FC Koper
Likeliest: NK Maribor win · 39%
We make it 53% for under 2.5 goals. The market says 39%.
14 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
NK Maribor39%47%−8
OursMarket
Draw26%25%+1
OursMarket
FC Koper35%28%+7
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 47% | 61% | −14 |
| Both teams score | 50% | 59% | −9 |
| Double chance 1X | 65% | 72% | −7 |
| Double chance X2 | 61% | 53% | +8 |
| Double chance 12 | 74% | 75% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 53% | 63% | −10 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
NK Maribor
DrawWinDraw
- Aug 1 · at NK Celje (A)1-1
- Jul 25 · v Brinje Grosuplje (H)3-0
- Jul 19 · at NK Aluminij Kidričevo (A)0-0
FC Koper
WinWinDrawLossDraw
- Aug 2 · at Brinje Grosuplje (A)1-1
- Jul 30 · v NSÍ Runavík (H)0-2
- Jul 26 · v Kalcer Radomlje (H)2-2
- Jul 23 · at NSÍ Runavík (A)2-0
- Jul 17 · at NK Nafta Lendava 1903 (A)2-0
| Last 10 games | NK Maribor | FC Koper |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | — | 2-2-1 |
| Goals scored a game | — | 1.4 |
| Goals conceded a game | — | 1.0 |
| Over 2.5 goals | — | 20% |
| Both teams scored | — | 40% |
| Clean sheets | — | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | — | — |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.