PrvaLiga (Slovenia) · Sat, Sep 19 · 18:15 · NK Maribor vs NK Aluminij Kidričevo
Likeliest: NK Maribor win · 66%
A tight one: we make it 66% for the home win. The market says 65%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
NK Maribor66%65%+2
OursMarket
Draw21%21%−1
OursMarket
NK Aluminij Kidričevo13%14%−1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 74% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 54% | 53% | +1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 26% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 50% | 48% | +2 |
| Double chance 1X | 87% | 86% | +1 |
| Double chance X2 | 34% | 35% | −2 |
| Double chance 12 | 79% | 79% | +1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 84% | 82% | +1 |
| Expected goals | 1.4 | 0.9 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
NK Maribor
DrawWinWinDrawWin
- Sep 13 · at Kalcer Radomlje (A)3-0
- Sep 6 · v NŠ Mura (H)1-1
- Aug 30 · at NK Nafta Lendava 1903 (A)3-2
- Aug 23 · v NK Bravo (H)3-1
- Aug 15 · at NK Olimpija Ljubljana (A)1-1
NK Aluminij Kidričevo
WinLossLossDrawWin
- Sep 13 · at NŠ Mura (A)6-1
- Sep 5 · v NK Bravo (H)0-0
- Sep 2 · v NK Celje (H)0-2
- Aug 28 · v FC Koper (H)0-1
- Aug 21 · v Brinje Grosuplje (H)4-2
| Last 10 games | NK Maribor | NK Aluminij Kidričevo |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-4-0 | 3-3-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.9 | 1.5 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.7 | 1.3 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 44% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 56% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 44% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | — | 2-1-2 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.