PrvaLiga (Slovenia) · Sun, Oct 18 · 16:00 · NK Maribor vs NK Celje
Likeliest: NK Maribor win · 40%
Likely score: 1–0
A tight one: we make it 40% for the home win. The market says 42%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
NK Maribor40%42%−2
OursMarket
Draw27%26%+1
OursMarket
NK Celje33%33%0
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 76% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 57% | 57% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 29% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 61% | 59% | +2 |
| Double chance 1X | 67% | 67% | 0 |
| Double chance X2 | 60% | 58% | +2 |
| Double chance 12 | 73% | 74% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 55% | 56% | −1 |
| Expected goals | 1.3 | 1.2 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
NK Maribor
WinDrawWinDrawWin
- Oct 11 · at Brinje Grosuplje (A)2-1
- Sep 19 · v NK Aluminij Kidričevo (H)2-2
- Sep 13 · at Kalcer Radomlje (A)3-0
- Sep 6 · v NŠ Mura (H)1-1
- Aug 30 · at NK Nafta Lendava 1903 (A)3-2
NK Celje
LossLossDrawWinLoss
- Oct 15 · v Omonia Nicosia (H)0-3
- Oct 10 · v NK Aluminij Kidričevo (H)1-0
- Sep 20 · at NŠ Mura (A)0-0
- Sep 16 · at Bayer 04 Leverkusen (A)0-2
- Sep 12 · at NK Bravo (A)1-2
| Last 10 games | NK Maribor | NK Celje |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 6-4-0 | 2-3-5 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.1 | 0.7 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.9 | 1.4 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 30% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-2-0 | 2-3-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.