PrvaLiga (Slovenia) · Sun, Oct 11 · 13:00 · NK Nafta Lendava 1903 vs NK Bravo
Likeliest: NK Bravo win · 37%
Likely score: 1–2
A tight one: we make it 37% for the away win. The market says 36%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
NK Nafta Lendava 190336%38%−2
OursMarket
Draw28%26%+1
OursMarket
NK Bravo37%36%+1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 76% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 57% | 57% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 29% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 61% | 59% | +2 |
| Double chance 1X | 63% | 64% | −1 |
| Double chance X2 | 64% | 62% | +2 |
| Double chance 12 | 72% | 74% | −2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 49% | 51% | −2 |
| Expected goals | 1.4 | 1.5 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
NK Nafta Lendava 1903
LossLossWinWinLoss
- Sep 19 · at FC Koper (A)0-2
- Sep 11 · at Brinje Grosuplje (A)2-1
- Sep 4 · v Kalcer Radomlje (H)3-1
- Aug 30 · v NK Maribor (H)2-3
- Aug 21 · at NK Olimpija Ljubljana (A)0-1
NK Bravo
LossWinDrawWinWin
- Sep 20 · v NK Olimpija Ljubljana (H)2-1
- Sep 12 · v NK Celje (H)2-1
- Sep 5 · at NK Aluminij Kidričevo (A)0-0
- Aug 29 · v NŠ Mura (H)2-0
- Aug 23 · at NK Maribor (A)1-3
| Last 10 games | NK Nafta Lendava 1903 | NK Bravo |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-1-5 | 4-3-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.7 | 1.1 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.6 | 1.3 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-0-3 | 2-2-2 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.