PrvaLiga (Slovenia) · Sat, Oct 10 · 18:15 · NK Olimpija Ljubljana vs NŠ Mura
Likeliest: NK Olimpija Ljubljana win · 58%
Likely score: 1–0
A tight one: we make it 58% for the home win. The market says 57%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
NK Olimpija Ljubljana58%57%+1
OursMarket
Draw26%25%+1
OursMarket
NŠ Mura17%18%−2
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 74% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 48% | 48% | −1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 27% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 47% | 46% | +1 |
| Double chance 1X | 84% | 82% | +2 |
| Double chance X2 | 42% | 43% | −1 |
| Double chance 12 | 74% | 75% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 78% | 76% | +2 |
| Expected goals | 1.6 | 0.8 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
NK Olimpija Ljubljana
WinDrawWinWinLoss
- Sep 20 · at NK Bravo (A)1-2
- Sep 12 · at FC Koper (A)3-1
- Sep 5 · v Brinje Grosuplje (H)3-0
- Aug 29 · at Kalcer Radomlje (A)0-0
- Aug 21 · v NK Nafta Lendava 1903 (H)1-0
NŠ Mura
LossLossDrawLossDraw
- Sep 20 · v NK Celje (H)0-0
- Sep 13 · v NK Aluminij Kidričevo (H)1-6
- Sep 6 · at NK Maribor (A)1-1
- Aug 29 · at NK Bravo (A)0-2
- Aug 22 · v FC Koper (H)0-1
| Last 10 games | NK Olimpija Ljubljana | NŠ Mura |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-2-4 | 2-3-5 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.0 | 1.0 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.8 | 2.1 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 30% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 30% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-1-1 | 1-2-2 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.