1. HNL (Croatia) · Sat, Sep 12 · 15:00 · NK Osijek vs GNK Dinamo Zagreb
Likeliest: GNK Dinamo Zagreb win · 57%
A tight one: we make it 57% for the away win. The market says 56%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
NK Osijek18%20%−3
OursMarket
Draw26%24%+2
OursMarket
GNK Dinamo Zagreb57%56%+1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 80% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 56% | 56% | +1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 35% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 56% | 54% | +2 |
| Double chance 1X | 43% | 44% | −1 |
| Double chance X2 | 82% | 80% | +2 |
| Double chance 12 | 74% | 76% | −2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 24% | 27% | −3 |
| Expected goals | 0.9 | 2.2 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
NK Osijek
WinWinLossWinLoss
- Sep 5 · at HNK Rijeka (A)1-4
- Aug 30 · v NK Slaven Belupo (H)3-0
- Aug 23 · at HNK Hajduk Split (A)0-4
- Aug 15 · v NK Lokomotiva Zagreb (H)1-0
- Aug 8 · at NK Rudeš (A)6-1
GNK Dinamo Zagreb
DrawWinLossDrawWin
- Sep 5 · v HNK Gorica (H)1-0
- Aug 29 · at NK Istra 1961 (A)2-2
- Aug 26 · at Viking FK (A)1-3
- Aug 22 · v NK Varaždin (H)3-1
- Aug 18 · v Viking FK (H)2-2
| Last 10 games | NK Osijek | GNK Dinamo Zagreb |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-0-2 | 6-3-1 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.2 | 2.4 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.5 | 1.1 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 67% | 80% |
| Both teams scored | 33% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | — | — |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.