1. HNL (Croatia) · Sat, Oct 10 · 16:00 · NK Osijek vs NK Istra 1961
Likeliest: NK Osijek win · 47%
Likely score: 1–0
A tight one: we make it 47% for the home win. The market says 48%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
NK Osijek47%48%−1
OursMarket
Draw27%25%+1
OursMarket
NK Istra 196127%27%−1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 72% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 57% | 56% | +1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 24% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 51% | 58% | −6 |
| Double chance 1X | 74% | 73% | +1 |
| Double chance X2 | 53% | 52% | +1 |
| Double chance 12 | 73% | 75% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 64% | 64% | 0 |
| Expected goals | 1.1 | 1.1 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
NK Osijek
LossWinLossWinDraw
- Sep 19 · at NK Varaždin (A)0-0
- Sep 12 · v GNK Dinamo Zagreb (H)4-2
- Sep 5 · at HNK Rijeka (A)1-4
- Aug 30 · v NK Slaven Belupo (H)3-0
- Aug 23 · at HNK Hajduk Split (A)0-4
NK Istra 1961
LossDrawDrawWinLoss
- Sep 19 · v HNK Gorica (H)0-1
- Sep 13 · v NK Rudeš (H)3-2
- Sep 4 · at NK Varaždin (A)0-0
- Aug 29 · v GNK Dinamo Zagreb (H)2-2
- Aug 23 · at HNK Rijeka (A)2-3
| Last 10 games | NK Osijek | NK Istra 1961 |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-1-2 | 2-3-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.1 | 1.8 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.4 | 1.6 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 63% | 75% |
| Both teams scored | 38% | 63% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 25% |
| Last 10 at this venue | — | — |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.