1. HNL (Croatia) · Sat, Aug 15 · 19:00 · NK Osijek vs NK Lokomotiva Zagreb
Likeliest: NK Lokomotiva Zagreb win · 42%
A 42% away win. The market says 23%.
19 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
NK Osijek30%48%−17
OursMarket
Draw28%30%−2
OursMarket
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb42%23%+19
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 61% | 49% | +12 |
| Both teams score | 50% | 50% | 0 |
| Double chance 1X | 58% | 77% | −19 |
| Double chance X2 | 70% | 52% | +17 |
| Double chance 12 | 72% | 70% | +2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 42% | 68% | −26 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
NK Osijek
WinWin
- Aug 8 · at NK Rudeš (A)6-1
- Aug 1 · at HNK Gorica (A)2-0
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb
WinWin
- Aug 8 · v HNK Gorica (H)3-1
- Aug 1 · at NK Istra 1961 (A)3-2