1. HNL (Croatia) · Sun, Oct 25 · 17:00 · NK Osijek vs NK Rudeš
Likeliest: NK Osijek win · 68%
Likely score: 2–1
A tight one: we make it 68% for the home win. The market says 65%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
NK Osijek68%65%+3
OursMarket
Draw20%20%−1
OursMarket
NK Rudeš13%15%−2
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 77% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 59% | 59% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 30% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 56% | — | — |
| Double chance 1X | 87% | 85% | +2 |
| Double chance X2 | 32% | 35% | −3 |
| Double chance 12 | 81% | 80% | +1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 84% | 81% | +3 |
| Expected goals | 1.8 | 1.1 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
NK Osijek
LossWinDrawLossDraw
- Oct 17 · v HNK Gorica (H)1-1
- Oct 10 · v NK Istra 1961 (H)1-3
- Sep 19 · at NK Varaždin (A)0-0
- Sep 12 · v GNK Dinamo Zagreb (H)4-2
- Sep 5 · at HNK Rijeka (A)1-4
NK Rudeš
LossLossDrawWinLoss
- Oct 16 · v HNK Rijeka (H)1-2
- Oct 9 · at HNK Gorica (A)2-1
- Sep 18 · v NK Slaven Belupo (H)2-2
- Sep 13 · at NK Istra 1961 (A)2-3
- Sep 6 · v HNK Hajduk Split (H)0-4
| Last 10 games | NK Osijek | NK Rudeš |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-2-3 | 2-1-7 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.9 | 1.3 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.5 | 2.7 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 90% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 0% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-1-1 | 1-0-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.