1. HNL (Croatia) · Sun, Aug 2 · 16:30 · NK Varaždin vs HNK Hajduk Split
Likeliest: NK Varaždin win · 38%
A 38% home win. The market says 25%.
12 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
NK Varaždin38%25%+12
OursMarket
Draw29%29%−1
OursMarket
HNK Hajduk Split34%46%−12
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 48% | 49% | −1 |
| Both teams score | 52% | 54% | −1 |
| Double chance 1X | 66% | 54% | +12 |
| Double chance X2 | 63% | 75% | −12 |
| Double chance 12 | 72% | 71% | +1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 52% | 36% | +17 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
NK Varaždin
WinLoss
- Jul 30 · at FK Jablonec (A)0-2
- Jul 23 · v FK Jablonec (H)3-2
HNK Hajduk Split
WinLossWinLoss
- Jul 30 · at Pafos FC (A)0-2
- Jul 23 · v Pafos FC (H)2-0
- Jul 16 · at MŠK Žilina (A)1-2
- Jul 9 · v MŠK Žilina (H)2-0