1. HNL (Croatia) · Sun, Aug 16 · 16:30 · NK Varaždin vs HNK Rijeka
Likeliest: HNK Rijeka win · 36%
We make it 65% for over 2.5 goals. The market says 46%.
19 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
NK Varaždin36%28%+7
OursMarket
Draw28%29%0
OursMarket
HNK Rijeka36%43%−7
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 65% | 46% | +19 |
| Both teams score | 44% | 51% | −8 |
| Double chance 1X | 64% | 57% | +7 |
| Double chance X2 | 64% | 72% | −7 |
| Double chance 12 | 72% | 71% | 0 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 50% | 40% | +10 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
NK Varaždin
WinLossWinWin
- Aug 9 · at NK Slaven Belupo (A)4-1
- Aug 2 · v HNK Hajduk Split (H)2-1
- Jul 30 · at FK Jablonec (A)0-2
- Jul 23 · v FK Jablonec (H)3-2
HNK Rijeka
WinWinWinWinDraw
- Aug 13 · at Ilves (A)1-1
- Aug 6 · v Ilves (H)1-0
- Aug 2 · v NK Rudeš (H)2-1
- Jul 30 · at Derry City (A)1-0
- Jul 23 · v Derry City (H)1-0
| Last 10 games | NK Varaždin | HNK Rijeka |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | — | 4-1-0 |
| Goals scored a game | — | 1.2 |
| Goals conceded a game | — | 0.4 |
| Over 2.5 goals | — | 20% |
| Both teams scored | — | 40% |
| Clean sheets | — | 60% |
| Last 10 at this venue | — | — |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.