1. HNL (Croatia) · Sat, Sep 19 · 15:00 · NK Varaždin vs NK Osijek
Likeliest: NK Varaždin win · 44%
A tight one: we make it 44% for the home win. The market says 45%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
NK Varaždin44%45%−1
OursMarket
Draw30%29%+1
OursMarket
NK Osijek27%26%+1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 73% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 51% | 51% | +1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 25% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 60% | 56% | +4 |
| Double chance 1X | 73% | 74% | −1 |
| Double chance X2 | 56% | 55% | +1 |
| Double chance 12 | 70% | 71% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 62% | 63% | −1 |
| Expected goals | 1.6 | 0.8 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
NK Varaždin
WinLossWinDrawDraw
- Sep 14 · at HNK Gorica (A)2-2
- Sep 4 · v NK Istra 1961 (H)0-0
- Aug 29 · v NK Rudeš (H)2-0
- Aug 22 · at GNK Dinamo Zagreb (A)1-3
- Aug 16 · v HNK Rijeka (H)2-0
NK Osijek
WinLossWinLossWin
- Sep 12 · v GNK Dinamo Zagreb (H)4-2
- Sep 5 · at HNK Rijeka (A)1-4
- Aug 30 · v NK Slaven Belupo (H)3-0
- Aug 23 · at HNK Hajduk Split (A)0-4
- Aug 15 · v NK Lokomotiva Zagreb (H)1-0
| Last 10 games | NK Varaždin | NK Osijek |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-2-2 | 5-0-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.8 | 2.4 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.2 | 1.6 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 56% | 71% |
| Both teams scored | 56% | 43% |
| Clean sheets | 33% | 43% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-1-0 | — |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.