1. HNL (Croatia) · Sat, Oct 24 · 16:00 · NK Varaždin vs NK Slaven Belupo
Likeliest: NK Varaždin win · 58%
Likely score: 2–0
A tight one: we make it 58% for the home win. The market says 56%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
NK Varaždin58%56%+2
OursMarket
Draw23%23%−1
OursMarket
NK Slaven Belupo20%21%−1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 76% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 59% | 59% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 29% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 54% | — | — |
| Double chance 1X | 81% | 79% | +1 |
| Double chance X2 | 42% | 44% | −2 |
| Double chance 12 | 78% | 77% | +1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 75% | 73% | +2 |
| Expected goals | 2.0 | 0.9 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
NK Varaždin
DrawDrawDrawWinLoss
- Oct 18 · at HNK Hajduk Split (A)0-1
- Oct 11 · at NK Lokomotiva Zagreb (A)1-0
- Sep 19 · v NK Osijek (H)0-0
- Sep 14 · at HNK Gorica (A)2-2
- Sep 4 · v NK Istra 1961 (H)0-0
NK Slaven Belupo
WinLossDrawWinLoss
- Oct 18 · v GNK Dinamo Zagreb (H)1-5
- Oct 11 · v HNK Rijeka (H)4-1
- Sep 18 · at NK Rudeš (A)2-2
- Sep 13 · at HNK Hajduk Split (A)0-1
- Sep 6 · v NK Lokomotiva Zagreb (H)2-1
| Last 10 games | NK Varaždin | NK Slaven Belupo |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-3-2 | 3-1-6 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.4 | 1.2 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.8 | 2.2 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 70% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-2-0 | 0-1-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.